Examining the recent rainfall patterns and its effects on vegetation cover over Uganda: a case study of the eastern region

Abstract

A study of recent rainfall trends and their effect on vegetation cover over eastern Uganda spanning from 2011 to 2021 has been made. Rainfall data from CHIRPS and NDVI data was obtained and the changes in rainfall and NDVI were determined using Mann-Kendall, SPI, spatial analysis, student’s t-test and relationship between NDVI and rainfall was tested using regression analysis. Results show insignificant increasing trend in MAM rainfall at 8.96% and no trend in the SON rainfall over eastern Uganda from 2011 to 2021. NDVI and rainfall were fitted in a regression model to test for their relationship and the results suggest that it was good regression model. The coefficient of determination of NDVI with MAM rainfall was 19% and 16% for SON rainfall. The significance of their relationship was furthermore tested using the student’s t-test and the results rejected the null hypothesis, concluding that there is a significant relationship between NDVI and rainfall of eastern Uganda for both MAM and SON seasons from 2011 to 2021.