Examination of the current and future temporal rainfall extremes over northern Uganda

Abstract

Weather and climate are very important as they influence various aspects of daily life including water resources, food security, transport, tourism, and health. This study examined the current, future spatial, and temporal precipitation; trends and extremes over Northern Uganda; with three objectives; to examine the trends in rainfall extremes occurrence in the past 20 years in Northern Uganda, to determine the observed spatial and temporal patterns of June to September season daily rainfall, and to determine the future extreme rainfall events over Northern Uganda. The study used longitudinal data for a period of 20 years from 2000 to 2019 taken as the baseline and 2022 to 2030 representing future period; and both annual and monthly data for the Northern Uganda region was retrieved for analysis. The study results revealed that the data exhibited good measures of central tendency and dispersion. The study found out that the trend in annual rainfall extremes occurrences in Northern Uganda, has been experiencing sharp increases and decreases in the amounts of rainfall it receives annually between 2000 and 2019. The trend in monthly rainfall was observed to be heterogeneous (with significant differences in the variabilities in the amount of rainfall received in the six months; June, July, August, September, October and November) over the 20-year period. On the determination of future extremes, the study found out that the amount of annual rainfall received in Northern Uganda is projected to experience a step wise increase in the amount of rainfall received in the region. The study recommended that decision makers need to design appropriate preparedness, mitigation and adaptation strategies in Northern Uganda.