An analysis of the factors that determine injury likelihood of road users involved in road accidents: a case study of Central Business Place

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to analyze the factors that determine the injury likelihood of road users involved in road accidents, particularly in the CBP. Secondary data was collected from CPS, Kampala. A sample size of 246 accident cases was selected, therefore 513 entries were made into Microsoft Excel and analyzed using the Stata software. Analysis was done using frequency tables, statistical tests, and binary logistic regression. In the study, it was found that the majority of the road users involved in road accidents (57.5%) did not sustain any injuries, their average age was 34.8, the majority were male (86.94), most of the accidents occurred during the day (52.44%) and the mode of travel popular to most road users was cars (36.26%). In the bivariate stage of analysis, age, time of day, and mode of travel were found to have a significant direct relationship with injury likelihood of road users involved in road accidents as their p-values are less than the level of significance (0.05), whereas gender had no significant relationship with injury likelihood of road users involved in road accidents. In the multivariate stage of analysis, the significant variables were ‘Light vehicles,’ ‘Motorcycle,’ and ‘Other’ under the mode of travel with p-values 0.002, 0.000, and 0.000 odds ratios 2.35, 14.34, and 36.16 respectively. This implies that; a person that drives light vehicles is 2.35 times more likely to get a road accident injury as compared to one that drives a car, a person that drives a motorcycle is 14.34 times more likely to get a road accident injury as compared to one that drives a car, a person that does not drive any motor vehicle is 36.16 times more likely to get a road accident injury as compared to one that drives a car. There is a need for the respective stakeholders and enforcers to promote safer driver practices among sub-groups of high-risk drivers for example motorcycle riders who were found to have a higher injury likelihood. This can be done through road safety campaigns including enforcement of observance of traffic rules, wearing of seatbelts, protective gear like helmets, etc.