Analysis of Uganda’s export to the East African Community (EAC) region using an ARIMA model from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Over the years, exchange rates between the Uganda shilling and other hard currencies especially the US dollar have fluctuated enormously hence representing a potential concern to Uganda’s exports to the EAC region. This is based on the assumption that exporters and importers are likely to exhibit some degree of risk aversion associated with the trade uncertainty. This study aims to carrying out an analysis of Uganda’s exports to the EAC region using an ARIMA model from 2005 To 2022.Specifically, it investigates the general trend of total value of Uganda Exports to the EAC region, fits an appropriate time series ARIMA model and forecasts the number of total values of Uganda Exports to the EAC region that is for the period 2005 to 2022 for a one-year period. In this research, secondary data on total value of coffee recorded between 1991 to 2018 was collected from UCDA. Data Analysis was based on testing for trend and forecasting with Univariate Box Jenkins Models. The study found out that from the trend that export was high in terms of monetary earning to the country and this could have due to the subsistence nature of the sector but with new government initiatives the sector picked up thus the upward trend.