Analysis of Uganda’s fish export situation: case study of Annual Fish Export Volume

Abstract

This research was carried out to analyze Uganda’s fish export situation, a case study of annual quarterly fish export volume. The objectives of the study were: to test for the presence/nature of trend component in fish export volume, to forecast/predict fish export volume for the next five years and to test for presence of the seasonality in fish export volume. Secondary data was collected from NaFIRRI and entered in excel for analysis. The researcher used least squares regression to test for seasonality in the series, Pearson’s parametric test for trend and the forecasts were made using a linear regression equation. The researcher found out that the series had trend with negative gradient (57.0562), seasonality exists in the series since the computed F = 23.258 is greater than the critical (3.05), the trend was downward sloping because the Pearson’s coefficient is less than zero (-4.950). We therefore conclude that fish export volume is falling with years and seasonality component exists. It’s therefore recommended that for the MAAIF to achieve its 4billion USD target in Agricultural export by 2020, it must involve itself in regulating and monitoring fishing and fisheries activities in Uganda so as to increase in the volume to be exported in the years to come.