Assessing the impact of rainfall and temperature variations on prevalence of typhoid fever cases in Kampala

Abstract

Typhoid fever globally affects approximately 21 million people annually of whom 222,000 succumb to the disease while another 5.6 billion are at risk of contracting the disease. This study investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature variations on the prevalence of typhoid fever cases in Kampala. The specific objectives; to examine the trends in rainfall and temperature variations over Kampala between 2011 and 2020, to examine the trend in the prevalence of typhoid fever cases in Kampala between 2011 and 2020, and to determine the effect of rainfall and temperature variations on the prevalence of typhoid fever cases. Trend and correlation analyses were used to address the specific objectives of the study. 10-year data was used for determining trends while a sample of 58 respondents was drawn to study the third objective. Primary data was collected on for objective 3 using questionnaires. Both primary and secondary data were analyzed. Secondary data on typhoid fever cases, rainfall and temperature was analyzed for objective 1 and 2 while primary data inform of questionnaire was analyzed for objective 3.Results indicated that annual rainfall has been increasing positively with change of time (slope = 16.35), JJA rainfall has been increasing inversely with change of time (slope = -4.342), SON rainfall has been increasing positively with change of time (slope = 0.4103), while temperatures in Kampala in the past decade have been increasing positively over time (slope = 0.0188). Typhoid fever cases in Kampala in the past decade have been increasing positively over time (slope = 23.345), and there was a high positive (r = 0.7145) significant relationship (p-value = 0.0000 < 0.05) between rainfall amount and number of typhoid fever cases. On the other factors influencing typhoid cases, poor sanitation was the leading, contributing to 42.9%, followed by people’s ignorance about the spread of the disease (25.9%), dirty water (21.3%), and resistance to treatment (10%).The study recommended that the Government of Uganda in partnership with UNMA should ensure that weather data and information is issued to people through radio and television broadcasts, newspapers, posters and other communication media to enable communities and policy makers to plan better on how to collect water to avoid flooding and waste mismanagement.