A univariate time series modeling for gold exports of Uganda (2000-2019)

Abstract

The study was to a Univariate Time Series Modeling for Gold Exports of Uganda (2000-2019) Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications which application are not done in Uganda as a policy of value addition thus more exports. The test statistics used in this research were autocorrelation function, autoregressive model and partial autocorrelation function. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. It was also discovered that among the test statistic used in this research, the forecast for the series was best obtained using the autoregressive of order one AR (1). The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for the investigation of the trend and to forecast the fish exports using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. A final model, based on the fish export, was constructed from a number of tentative models identified by examining the ACF (autocorrelation function) plots and the PACF (partial autocorrelation function) plots. A time series models were fit to the data. ARIMA (1, 0, 0) was noted to fit the data well. Further adequacy test on the model also confirmed the validity of the selected model. The model was used to forecast for the volume of gold export for the next one year. There is need to strengthen and modify the legal framework that manages gold exports especially to curb down on the smuggling of the commodity, to regulate small and artisanal miners but also see to it there is some value addition to the commodity since it is already a government policy to add value to all exports of the country. As a way of improving Uganda's gold exports the researcher recommends that certificates be issued to all gold miners in the country and that small and artisanal miners come to together in cooperatives to get a single certificate in order to ease monitoring from government and to ensure Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals as criteria needed by the OECD by gold exporters.