A probabilistic approach to study and evaluate variability in system parameters

Abstract

This project presents a probabilistic study and evaluation of a power systems network with variable parameters. The study aimed to analyze the behavior of the network under uncertain conditions and assess the impact on bus voltages. Initially, a deterministic load flow analysis was performed to establish a baseline understanding of the power system. Emphasis was placed on monitoring the voltages at each bus, their deviations from the rated voltage and the results were carefully recorded for further analysis. Subsequently, distribution functions were modeled for various network parameters, including line resistance, loading, and generation. Goodness of fit tests were conducted to ensure the suitability of the chosen distributions. To incorporate uncertainty into the analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation was employed to perform probabilistic load flow calculations together. The focus remained on evaluating the voltage results throughout the system. The probabilistic load flow analysis yielded valuable insights into the power system’s behavior. Key results included the identification of minimum and maximum voltage values at each bus, the probability of voltage limit violations, as well as the expected duration and frequency of voltage violations. Using this information, an assessment was made to determine the load level at which the bus voltages exceeded acceptable ranges. These findings provide crucial guidance for system operators and planners to prevent potential voltage violations and optimize the performance of the power network. Based on the study’s results and conclusions, several recommendations are proposed to improve the power system’s resilience and ensure stable voltage conditions. These may include implementing corrective measures, such as adjusting the network parameters or introducing additional voltage control devices.