Assessing the impact of rainfall variability on food security in Kapchorwa District

Abstract

This research study aims to investigate the multifaceted impact of rainfall variability on food security. The study spans from 2000 to 2022, encompassing a substantial period to discern patterns and trends in rainfall fluctuations. The specific objectives include analysing the rainfall variability over the studied period, understanding public perceptions regarding its influence on food accessibility, and evaluating the socio-economic ramifications on food accessibility. The methodology employs a combination of meteorological data analysis, structured surveys, and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders. Statistical models and qualitative analysis techniques are employed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship between rainfall patterns and food security. Preliminary findings suggest noticeable shifts in rainfall patterns over the study period, with potential implications for agricultural practices and food production. Additionally, public perception surveys reveal a diverse range of attitudes and beliefs concerning the impact of rainfall variability on food accessibility. These perceptions are influenced by factors such as regional location, socio-economic status, and prior experiences with climatic variations. In 1990, Kapchorwa district experienced its highest recorded rainfall, reaching 147.66mm. This notable occurrence serves as a focal point for examining the subsequent trends in rainfall over the ensuing years. Conversely, 1999 witnessed the lowest recorded rainfall, with a mere 59.33mm, emphasizing the stark contrast in precipitation levels within the decade. Preliminary findings indicate that the extraordinary rainfall in 1990 had a profound impact on crop production, leading to an abundance of certain crops but also posing challenges in water management. Findings also reveal a clear seasonal distribution of rainfall for a period of over 30 years from 1990 to 2022, with heavy and consistent precipitation observed during the MAM (March to May) and SON (September to November) seasons. Conversely, the JJA (June to August) and DJF (December to February) seasons exhibit significantly lower levels of rainfall. This seasonal contrast highlights the critical importance of understanding and adapting to the changing precipitation patterns for sustainable agricultural practices. Furthermore, the socio-economic assessment highlights the tangible consequences of rainfall variability on food accessibility, including income disparities, market fluctuations, and nutritional challenges. This analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers, agricultural practitioners, and community stakeholders to develop targeted strategies and interventions to enhance food security in the face of changing climatic conditions.