Assessing the influence of Rainfall and Temperature Variability on Inland Fisheries Production: Case Study of Kasenyi Fish Landing Site on Lake Victoria

Abstract

This study examined the influence of rainfall and temperature variability on inland fisheries production on Lake Victoria from 2011 to 2021 with Kasenyi Landing Site used as a case study. The objectives were to establish the relationship between rainfall, temperature and fish catch at Kasenyi Landing Site, to assess trends in rainfall and temperature variability and to determine the trends in fish catch. The study involved use of multivariate regression analysis to establish the relationship between rainfall, temperature and fish. Trends in rainfall and temperature variability as well as determining trends in fish catch were determined using Mann Kendall trend test. The data was analyzed using Microsoft Excel and presented in form of graphs, trends, scatter diagrams and models. Results from regression analysis showed that there was insufficient evidence to support a significant linear relationship between the dependent variable (fish yield) and the independent variables (rainfall and temperature). These findings suggested that other factors not considered in the regression analysis may have had a stronger influence on fish catches at Kasenyi Landing Site. While some correlations were identified, they were not strong enough to draw significant conclusions. Trend analysis for rainfall variability indicated significance at 5% level (p<0.05) with no clear trend upward or downward overall, despite having some variations over the years. Temperature variability analysis indicated a generally decreasing trend in temperature across the years characterized by stability, as the fluctuations appeared to be relatively minor. Trend analysis for fish catch indicated varying patterns in the Lates Niloticus and tilapia catch over the years. Both species exhibited a generally decreasing trend with fluctuations, periods of significant growth, sudden drops and stabilization over the years. However, the observed trends and relationships provided valuable insights into the complex dynamics of fish populations, climate variables, and their interplay