Analysis of poverty levels among households in Uganda (evidence from the Uganda National Household survey 2019/2020)

Abstract

There have been tremendous efforts made by the government in partnership with a number of organizations to eradicate poverty in Uganda which have brought about great reduction in the poverty numbers in Uganda in accordance with the sustainable development goals. However, the number of households in Uganda below and the ones just above the poverty line is still alarmingly high therefore it was on this basis that the study aimed at exploring the factors that could be influencing the poverty levels among households. This was assessed by using categorical data from the 2019/2020 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS). The data used excluded households with more than 15 people. I apply statistical analysis at all three levels to determine dependence of the response variable and state its correlation with the selected independent variables. A logistic regression was utilized with all variables and showed that household size, employment status, having children below 18 years, covid pandemic, regional location and never attending school, all significantly affect the probability of being poor. However, the magnitude of the effect varies with each variable. The study showed high likelihood of being poor with increase in the household size and having children below 18 years as the composition of the household members (OR 1.12, P-value 0.000). Results also showed that having never attended school was linked with high poverty probability (OR 2.10, P-value 0.000). In addition, the study finds strong evidence from the regression that being unemployed increases odds of being poor (OR 1.40, P-value 0.000) In this study, it is also shown that residing in regions other than the central region, increased odds of poverty with the northern and eastern regions having the highest odds (OR 3.61, P-value 0.000 and OR 3.21, P-value 0.000 respectively).Furthermore, there is evidence of true poverty persistence because of the covid pandemic that caused a recession in the economy (OR 1.38, P-value 0.000). The findings from the study should be availed to the Government of Uganda through the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development for evaluation and formulation of new strategies in efforts towards poverty eradication among households by moving them above the poverty line.