Analysis of the energy demand of Uganda using the end use model

Abstract

This project analyses energy demand of Uganda using the End Use model while comparing its accuracy with other methods of energy demand forecasting and analysis that is the time series and econometric models. The Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited uses the Time series and Econometric models to forecast electricity demand presented in the Grid Development Plan. The Econometric model statistically examines the historical energy demand, population growth and macroeconomics so as to forecast the energy demand of a country in aggregated form. This ignores the behavioral and technological evolution which greatly affects the energy demand. The End Use model uses a disaggregated approach whereby the energy consumed by the different end use activities is summed for each sector and then the Final Energy Demand determined using value added per sector and demography as the driving parameters while accounting for the technological and behavioral changes in the energy sector. An open source, scenario based simulation program namely, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand which is End Use based was used to carry out the analysis and forecast for this specific project. This broke down the energy demand according to energy forms that is traditional fuels, electricity, fossil fuels; and sectors that is industry, household (residential), service (commercial), and transportation thus providing detailed and more realistic projections. When the results from both models were compared with the actual energy consumed in 2017 provided by Electricity Regulatory Authority, the End Use based forecast showed 24.3% more accuracy than the 2017 forecast from the Grid Development Plan by Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited which incorporated the Econometric model.