Time series analysis of infant deaths due to malaria in Uganda (1991 to 2017)

Abstract

This study was modified by the decreased death of infants due to Malaria in the country. The purpose of the study was to establish the trend of infant mortality due to Malaria in Uganda. The study was guided by the following objectives to establish if there is trend in under five deaths from 2012-2018, to determine the occurrence of infant mortality rate due to malaria, to investigate whether there is stationarity in the recorded figures from 2012-2018, to assess cause reduction of infant mortality due to malaria overtime, to make predications for under five mortalities. Secondary data obtained from the records department of malaria control Ministry of Health was used for the study. Descriptive statistics showed that MALARIA accounted for the generally low or reduced deaths. Under-five mortality was also found to decreasing but deaths still high. The study also revealed that the mortality series due to malaria exhibited downward trend over the period of the study. Non-Stationarity was also found to exist in the death series where most of the deaths were recorded in the month of June, December, February, July and August and the least in January and October. There was a general reduction in mortality due to Malaria. Also, with the help of the ACF and PACF plots, tentative models were fit to the data. ARIMA (1, 0, 2) was noted to fit the data well. Further adequacy test on the model also confirmed the validity of the selected model. The model was used to forecast for monthly cases of malaria for the next one years The study therefore recommended to develop ways of tackling the challenges associated with malaria preventive program in Uganda is by putting in place a community Multifaceted Supply system built around the needs of control and prevention of Malaria by tracking and collecting data of cases and rapid response in case of an outbreak especially during rainy period when these deaths are predominates and to also develop innovative approaches that will expand treatment and drugs to cover the country. It is recommended that in some instances, indoor residual spraying should be applied to minimize environmental contamination. Indoor residual spraying is suggested for application prior to the rainy season to prevent and control epidemic outbreaks. The use of Insecticide Treated Nets is also recommended especially in the rainy seasons