Evaluation of dry spells and rainy days in MAM season over Soroti District

Abstract

Rainfall a form of precipitation is a crucial factor that has consequences on agricultural production especially in the tropics. Rainfall variability can led to extreme weather events such as dry spells, floods and among others which causes a range of negative effects to agriculture, ecosystem and environment. This study therefore examined the historical and projected dry spells and rainy days in MAM season over Soroti district from 2005 to 2018 and 2021 to 2040 respectively. The dry spell was defined as period of at least 7 consecutive days with daily rainfall below 2.5 mm and a rainy day when rainfall equaled or exceeded 2.5 mm. linear trends were calculated using MK test and significance of the trends were identified using the p-value at 0.05 significant level. The results shown an increasing trend in dry spells and a decreasing trend in rainy days in MAM season for historical data and the projected data shown a decreasing trend for both dry spells and rainy days. The results indicate that dry spells in MAM season will continue in future and likely to impact agriculture, people’s health and ecosystem and therefore calls for adaptation and mitigation measures by decision makers in Soroti district.