Time Series Analysis of Tourist Arrivals in Uganda (1990 To 2018)

Abstract

This study was to investigate the general trend of tourist arrivals in Uganda from 1990 to 2017 and to construct an autoregressive model of a suitable order for the process. The test statistics used in this research were autocorrelation function, autoregressive model and partial autocorrelation function. It was also discovered that among the test statistic used in this research, the forecast for the series was best obtained using the autoregressive of order one AR (1). The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for the investigation of the trend and to forecast the fish exports using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. A final model, based on the fish export, was constructed from a number of tentative models identified by examining the ACF (autocorrelation function) plots and the PACF (partial autocorrelation function) plots. The study found that tourist arrivals where on a steady raise though with a few dips which may be brought about by external factors likes election and politicking of various actors plus the never ending strikes like teachers but as forecasted by the study, tourist arrivals is a rosy affair if government adds more efforts especially on the part of marketing The study proposes to government of Uganda plans for policies to boost international tourism, it should target countries with high population, the countries where relative prices between Uganda and that specific country will be high. Now the government can invest in tourism promotion in such a country by hiring out marketing agencies in those countries to market the beauty of Uganda and engaging in world events especially sports like Olympics, IAAF annual events, annual marathons and perhaps the world cup to give a boost to our worldly recognition thus enhancing tourist numbers.