Trend analysis of factors influencing performance of Fish export volumes in for the period (1991-2010)

Abstract

This study seeks to evaluate the effects of particular determinants such as GDP and money supply on the fish export volumes in Uganda. We want to determine the extent to which these factors influence the performance of key fish export volumes and identify the ones that constrain fish export growth. Some of these factors could be external and not captured at a macro level so we are mainly going to look at this on a firm level. In our methodology, we shall use secondary annual time series data (1991-2010) from the international financial statistics and variables like export growth rate, foreign price level among others. We further analyze the data on the univariate, bivariate and multivariate levels using the ordinary least squares to establish which variable significantly affects fish export growth. Following our findings, money supply and GDP impact fish exports positively as there is a direct gradual relationship between these factors and fish exports whereas interest rates and inflation impact fish exports negativity in that an increase in one leads to a decrease in the other. Our recommendation is that interest should be put to economic growth, inflation and foreign price as they greatly decrease fish export volume. The relevance of money supply, interest rate favorable to borrowers, stable exchange rates cannot be over emphasized, the OLS itself reveals that favorable interest rates and inflation have insignificant positive effect on fish export earnings.