Identification and analysis of future land use conflicts in Wakiso district (land use conflict identification model-lucis)

Abstract

Land use suitability analysis is a process of identifying the most appropriate location and distribution of future land uses (Collins, 2001; Malczewski, 2004). LUCIS is a goal driven model that attempts to derive probable future land-use patterns based on the three-broad land-use categories of agriculture, conservation and urban. LUCIS use analytical GIS models to determine where potential future conflicts may occur between competing land uses. Wakiso District has been one of the fastest growing places in Uganda over the past two decades. Population expansions driven by sociodemographic, economic and settlement factors are the major cause of land cover change. These changes in land cover due to land use activities lead to a variety of changes in the preference/suitability of land parcels for the different land use categories. In this study Landsat images (Landsat images) from 1990 to 2016 and LULC maps obtained from the ministry of Agriculture are used as the Primary sources of data. Image pre-processing, image classification (supervised) followed by prediction of future LULC and Future Space conflict diagram for the three major categories of Land uses identified. The results from the subsequent processes are analyzed and interpreted for meaning as regards what the future looks like if current growth and development trends are continued