The causes of electoral violence during the November 2020- January 2021 elections in Otuboi town, Soroti district, Uganda

Abstract

The study aimed at explaining the causes of electoral violence in Soroti district. It is assumed that main cause of the violence is the presence of the violent youth and government. It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, we show that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government or opposition collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions.