Analysis of the influence of tropical cyclones on mam rainfall season over Uganda
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ABSTRACT Tropical Cyclones(TCs) are frequently associated with disasters given the adverse impacts that the related intense winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfall have on vulnerable regions and yet given less attention for our region, thus the study’s main objective is to analyze the influence of Tropical cyclones on March, April, May rainfall over Uganda. with the specific objectives to determine the trend in the March, April, May seasonal rainfall over Uganda, to establish the trend in the frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence, and to determine the relationship between tropical cyclones occurrence and the March, April, May season rainfall totals over Uganda for the period (2000 to 2019). The datasets used in this study included reanalyzed monthly rainfall data, for ten meteorological stations (Arua, Tororo, Gulu, Kasese, Soroti, Jinja, Kasese, Masindi, Mbarara, and Entebbe), u and v components of wind at 850hPa for the entire globe obtained from ERA5 data, Tropical cyclone best track data extracted from joint typhoon warning center for the period 2000-2019. The study employed trend analysis, linear correlation, and graphical method. Generally, trend analysis depicted an increasing trend in MAM rainfall in most of the stations and a decreasing trend in the frequency of Tropical cyclones. However, these results shows that the rainfall trends at nine out of the ten stations and the trend of occurance of TCs are not statistically significant with (P>0.05) and only Entebbe station being significant with(p<0.05). Results for the linear correlation between tropical cyclone occurrence and rainfall depicted a weak Negative linear relationship throughout all the stations except for Kasese, Tororo, and Mbarara which showed a positive linear relationship of 0.1303, 0.011 and 0.01 respectively but not statistically signifigant.