Examining observed characteristics in mam rainfall and temperature over western uganda; case study Kabale
Arinaitwe, Mathias Robert
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Weather and its associated extremes are very crucial in everyday life because they affect almost every sector of the economy most especially Agriculture. Recently, climate extremes of landslides, floods, drought have been on an increase mainly due to climate variability or climate change amplified by human activities. Studying these MAM patterns and characteristics help in readiness, planning and preparation for any short comings. Therefore, this study examined observed pattern changes in rainfall and temperature characteristics during MAM season over Kabale, western Uganda for a period of 30 years (1992-2021) using climate data tool for analysis. Data sets used include CHIRPS rainfall estimates data and observed temperature data merged with JRA-55 Reanalysis. Analysis of intra seasonal rainfall characteristics, mam anomalies, likelihood of extremes were all carried out using various statistical techniques such as mean, trend, count (days >= 25.0mm), totals and probability of exceeding thresholds (400mm). Results indicate early onset of MAM rainfall over Kabale and early cessation of rainfall season with some years showing delayed cessation. The early onset and delayed cessation of rainfall have resulted to relatively longer length of rainfall season. investigated time span shows positive anomalies in the western sub-region. Also, rainfall trends during MAM show that rainfall has been increasing over Kabale with its associated extremes. For temperature, Kabale experience low values in minimum and maximum temperature over western Uganda. Minimum temperature is highly modulated by altitude and hilly nature thus remains relatively stable throughout the study period. The analysis and trend of temperature reveal that western Uganda is warming with significant rise in both maximum and minimum, with minimum temperature increasing at a faster rate than maximum temperature. Therefore, the results indicate that weather extremes have been on an increase and therefore calls for decision-makers, planners to design appropriate preparedness and mitigation strategies over south western Uganda. Also recommends more research in weather and climatic patterns of low altitude regions of western Uganda in comparison with high altitude regions.