Sensitivity analysis of rainfall variability and its impact on coffee yield in eastern and central Uganda.

Abstract

This study investigated the nexus between rainfall variability and coffee yield within Eastern and Central Uganda's coffee systems. Its primary objectives encompassed assessing yield variations across diverse farming systems, understanding farmer perceptions of rainfall changes, and a sensitivity analysis to discern the direct impact of rainfall variability on coffee production. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research analyzed the diverse yield outcomes observed in different coffee systems. Statistical analyses unveiled nuanced yield disparities influenced by local and regional environmental factors. Furthermore, the study probed into the perceptions of coffee farmers toward changing rainfall patterns. Utilizing surveys, interviews, and qualitative assessments, it elucidated the socio-economic implications of these perceptions on crop yields. Central to this investigation was a detailed sensitivity analysis that quantified the precise influence of rainfall variability on coffee yield, hence the study delineated the direct relationship between precipitation fluctuations and coffee production. The findings underscore substantial yield variations among farming systems, diverse farmer perspectives on rainfall variability, and a quantifiable impact of rainfall fluctuations on coffee yield. These insights contribute significantly to understanding the vulnerabilities of coffee cultivation to climatic changes, offering critical foundations for tailored interventions and adaptive strategies to bolster resilience in Uganda's coffee systems.