| dc.description.abstract | Climate change is a global challenge with uncertainties in drivers and impacts on sectors like agriculture, water supply, and global economies. Therefore, this study aimed to examined observed and projected patterns of precipitation and temperature characteristics during the annual, MAM and SON seasons over lake Kyoga basin. The study evaluated observed and projected mean temperature and precipitation for three sub-regions (1981-2014) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) over different periods (2020-2099). The standard anomalized index (SAI) was computed for both scenarios to determine variations per 5 years. The study also examined the historical trends of mean temperature and precipitation using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test at the 5% significant level to determine the trend significance.
Whereas LKB annual rainfall showed a negative significant trend with p-value of 0.032 less than level of significance (0.05) rejecting the null hypothesis and kendall’s score of -0.259. Elgon, Karamoja and Teso showed negative insignificant trend accepting the null hypothesis for both annual and seasonal (MAM and SON) with p-values of 0.163, 0.138, and 0.1315 all greater than the level of significance with kendall’s scores of -0.168, -0.179 and -0.184 (annual) respectively. With MAM season having p-values of 0.331, 0.4266, and 0.182 then SON season with p-values of 0.302, 0.47, and 0.328 respectively and kendall’s score as showed in table 3 and also LKB and Karamoja seasonal rainfall also showed negative insignificant trend. For mean temperature LKB and all the three sub-regions showed a positive significant trend for both annual and seasonal (MAM and SON) with all the p-values less than level of significance (0.05) table 3. Results for projected rainfall indicate that Teso and Karamoja showed that most of the years will have suppressed rains for both SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 for both periods. LKB showed some periods to be enhanced, suppressed and balanced lastly. Elgon SSP2-4.5 experienced suppressed rains in 2020-2059 and 2060-2099 for both MAM and SON, while also showing balanced rainfall in 2060-2099 and SSP5-8.5 MAM seasons. The study found out that Elgon experienced enhanced rains in SSP5-8.5 annually and for the SON season 2060-2099. Mean temperatures were warm from 2040s to 2059, and from 2060-2099, they increased from 2080s to end 2099, showing positive trends. The Lake Kyoga basin is experiencing climate change, with increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, affecting agriculture and infrastructure. This study identifies affected areas for mitigation and adaptation strategies, aiding policy and decision-makers in local communities | en_US |
