The impact of growing populations on economic growth in Uganda

Abstract

The debate on the relationship between population growth and economic growth has been undergoing and varies across countries. The first theory states that population growth stimulates economic growth. The second theory view population growth as a factor that adversely affects economic growth while a third school is that population growth is a neutral factor in economic growth and is determined outside standard growth models. Given this scenario there was a need to establish the impact of growing populations on economic growth in Uganda. The procedure for estimation this study was the ordinary least square (OLS) simple linear regression using the annual time series data for GDP at current prices in USD billion and population growth obtained from the IMF website. The OLS estimator possesses the BLUE properties of Best, linear, and Unbiased Estimator, which is consistent and sufficient.The results indicated population growth and economic growths are both positively correlated and that an increase in population will impact positively to the economic growth in the country. At the same time, GDP at current prices in USD was predicted to increase by USD 547.1835 billion given an increase in the population size by one unit. The study therefore recommends for a productive population and an active government to make policies that favor the economic engagement of the nationals, avoid enacting laws and imposing taxes that choke the nationals but rather ensure that increasing demand of services arising from the population growth is met. Having a larger, healthier, and better-educated workforce will only bear economic fruit if the extra workers can find jobs.