Examining the Characteristics of Drought in the Cattle Corridor under a Changing Climate
MetadataShow full item record
The cattle corridor of Uganda is one of the areas prone to recurrent drought conditions. This study aimed at examining drought characteristics over the cattle corridor in both the past (1981-2018) and future periods (2020-2050). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied on the monthly rainfall obtained from climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to determine the dry periods experienced over the study period. Runs theory, Mann Kendall trend and Inverse Distance Weighting methods were applied on the calculated SPI values to determine the drought characteristics including trend, duration, frequency and intensity. Findings from the study indicate that drought conditions are increasing due to lower SPI values observed during past period (1981-2018) with about 78.9% of the climate extremes recorded as drought. In addition, variations have been observed in drought conditions over the region on temporal and spatial scales with low drought frequency in the southern part of the region. However, results on future drought indicate a slight decrease in drought conditions due to the observed slight increase of slope 0.0031 in the SPI values between 2020 and 2050. Spatial and temporal variations in drought conditions also exist in the future in the terms of duration, severity, intensity and frequency. Spatially, results indicate low drought frequency in the southern part of the region and moderate frequency in the northern part of the cattle corridor and moderate frequency in the northern part of the cattle corridor. These observations have a significant implication on available water for the economic activities in the area for example livestock farming. This study recommends coping techniques to be designed that ensure sustainable water use and also improve food security in the cattle corridor.