Assessing the impact of weather on malaria cases in Bugishu Sub-Region, Eastern Uganda. A case study of Mbale District.

Abstract

This study focused on the influence of weather and climate on malaria in Mbale district with the malaria case count and to demonstrate the potential of rainfall and temperature data in predicting malaria prevalence. Malaria incidence data from Mbale referral hospital and meteorological data(temperature and rainfall) form Buginyanya agro meteorology station were analyzed. Results showed increasing trends of both rainfall land temperature, however malaria cases were decreasing. Further analysis showed that weather only explain6.9% of the malaria cases and correlation analysis failed to establish a statistical significant relationship between malaria cases and weather. This means that to a large extent malaria prevalence in Mbale is due to other factors such as a weak health system, increasing resistance to anti-malarial drugs and late treatment seeking behavior of people. Therefore, much as there exists a relationship between weather and malaria cases, in order to make effective malaria case count predictions, it is important to consider these other factors in addition to weather.