Assesing the impacts of seasonal rainfall variation on barley production in Bukwo district
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The rainfall variation in Uganda has influenced Agriculture and other related sectors negatively. For example, extreme rains have often caused flooding while suppressed rains have often caused droughts. The yield of seasonal crops is expected to continue declining due to the declining trend of seasonal rainfall especially in the ASON season and the yield is expected to continue increasing in season A due to increasing trend of MAMJ rains. This study mainly investigated the impact of variable seasonal rainfall onbarley production in Bukwo district (Kapyoyonfarm). Specifically, it examined patterns, the distribution and variability in the seasonal and annual rainfall amounts in Bukwo district for the period of 2009-2018, determined the trends in barley grain yield for Kapyoyonduring the two major growing seasons. The data for rainfall and barley production in (mm) andtonnes(t) respectively was analyzed using Pearson’s and Spearman’s rank correlation methods. The results suggest the presence of astrong positive significant correlation between rainfall total and barley yield during the firstseason (MAMJ) (rs = 0.794, p< 0.05) and (r = 0.704, p< 0.05). Similarly, rainfall and barley yield during the second growing season (ASON) exhibited fairly strong positive correlation (rs = 0.491, p> 0.05) and (r = 0.53, p>0.05). Analysis of the Kapyoyon rainfall data shows that it received bimodal rainfall patterns with corresponding seasons of MAMJ and ASON. These two rainfall seasons were the major seasons and had different rainfall amounts of 542.9 mm and 582.7 mm respectively.But the ASON season displayed a higher variation amounts (226.5 mm) than the MAMJthat had a standard deviation of (172.6 mm), making the MAMJ more suitable for barley grain production. For barley production the result in both seasons were above the mean and also below the mean value of barley amounts in the years, that is to say 801.2 tonnes and 817.8 tonnes for MAMJ and ASON respectively. The decrease in barley yields was as a result of low rainfall amounts received in some years of the respective seasons and increase of barley yields in some years was due to increased amount of rainfall received. These results are beneficial for informing Bukwo district in Sebei province, the government of Uganda, the educational institutions and the research institutions. These results can also guide students who want to carry out their research projects because it can be beneficial when writing the literature review.