The influence of El-Nino Southern oscillation on the seasonal rainfall over central Uganda
Abstract
Majority of communities in Uganda rely on rainfed agriculture which is highly vulnerable to the
distribution and amounts of rainfall. A clear understanding of teleconnective systems that influence
rainfall is imperative. The aim of the study was to examine the influence of El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) on the seasonal rains of Central Uganda. Specifically, the study set out to
determine the temporal rainfall trends over Central Uganda and investigate the relationship
between ENSO and seasonal rainfall over Central Uganda. The study found out that the
September-November seasonal rainfall indicated an increasing trend over the 1987-2017 30-year
period across all the stations expect for Mbarara and Mubende. Also, all the stations exhibited an
interannual variability in the September-November seasonal rainfall, indicative of remote
influences such ENSO. The relationship between the ENSO indices and September-November
seasonal rainfall was established using a simple correlation analysis showed a positively correlated
influence with all ENSO indices except for Mbarara and Mubende stations.