Trend analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in Uganda from 1960 to 2018

Abstract

Carbon dioxide, (CO2), is one of the most important greenhouse gases linked to global warming. It is formed in combustion of carbon-containing materials, in fermentation, and in respiration of animals and employed by plants in the photosynthesis of carbohydrates. The global surface of carbon dioxide, calculated from measurements collected at NOAA’S remote sampling located was 412.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, rising by 2.6 ppm during the year. The global rate of increase was the fifth highest in NOAA’S 63-year record, following 1987, 1998, 2015 and 2016. The purpose of the study was to establish the trend of emissions of carbon dioxide in Uganda. The study utilized World Bank data from 1960-2018. Data analysis was done in stata where stationarity test, dick fuller test and the ARIMA model were used plus other diagnostic test. In this study we investigated the general trends of carbon dioxide emissions in Uganda from 1960 to 2018 to determine if there is any increase or decrease in carbon dioxide emissions. A trend analysis was applied to yearly carbon dioxide emissions and fitted to the appropriate ARIMA model. The trend shows that there is an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in Uganda despite the efforts done by government to reduce them such as discouraging deforestation. Therefore, the government should intervene in the campaign against deforestation. The model also proved that the model is adequate for forecasting of yearly carbon dioxide emissions in the Country. Moreover, the model was found to have a good fit hence appropriate for the study. Therefore, the government of Uganda should expect a reduction in the rate of carbon dioxide emission. The study recommended that in some instances, tree planting by every individual should be applied to minimize environmental contamination. This can be suggested during a rainy season where every head plants at least a tree. Entrepreneurs should come up with other better transport means which will not pollute the environment. Government programs should be put in place to discourage deforestation.