Assessing the impact of climate change on construction cost estimation in Uganda

Abstract

Uganda’s construction industry faces growing challenges from climate change, including intensified rainfall, prolonged droughts, and rising temperatures. These shifts disrupt traditional cost estimation, which relies on historical data ill-suited for current and future conditions. This study examines how climate change impacts construction cost estimation in Uganda, identifying key cost drivers, assessing estimation practices, and recommending strategies for resilience. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research combined qualitative interviews with 20 professionals and quantitative surveys with 100 respondents, including quantity surveyors and engineers in Uganda. Findings show that climate variability significantly affects project timelines, material availability, and labor productivity, particularly for site preparation and foundation works in flood- prone areas like Nakivubo. Budget overruns of 10–20% are common due to inadequate climate risk integration. Despite awareness, the industry lacks localized climate data, standardized tools, and supportive regulations, with barriers like client resistance hindering adaptation. Some firms adapt through revised schedules and enhanced drainage, but broader resilience requires systemic change. The study recommends climate-specific estimation frameworks, improved meteorological data access, professional training, and regulatory reforms to mandate resilient practices. These measures are critical for ensuring the economic viability and sustainability of Uganda’s built environment, including roads and commercial buildings, amidst escalating climate threats. Keywords: Climate change, construction, cost estimation, Uganda, resilience