Effect of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Net (LLIN) distribution on malaria related death in Kampala

Abstract

This study investigates the statistical association between malaria-related mortality and the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) among high-risk populations in Uganda, with a focus on pregnant women and children under five years. Using a cross-sectional dataset of 144 observations and a multiple linear regression model, the study evaluated three LLIN distribution channels: immunisation outreach programs for children aged 1–4 years, static health facility-based child immunisation services, and antenatal care (ANC) first visit distributions to pregnant women. Despite theoretical expectations, the model revealed no statistically significant predictive relationship between these LLIN indicators and malaria-related deaths (R = .127, R² = .016, p > 0.05). The low explanatory power of the model, coupled with weak standardized coefficients, indicates that LLIN distribution alone may be insufficient to account for variation in malaria mortality outcomes. Diagnostic tests confirmed acceptable levels of multicollinearity (VIF < 1.5) and no violation of linear regression assumptions, enhancing the robustness of the statistical interpretation. However, the findings raise critical questions about the effectiveness of distribution without parallel emphasis on proper utilization, post-distribution behavior, environmental factors, and access to complementary malaria prevention interventions. The study underscores the need for a more integrated malaria control approach, one that couples net distribution with intensive behavioral change communication, real-time surveillance, and context-specific strategies addressing local epidemiological dynamics. It further advocates for deeper research into user compliance, vector resistance, and health system performance in malaria endemic regions. The findings contribute to the growing discourse on optimizing public health interventions through data-driven targeting and evidence-based policy refinement. Keywords: LLIN Distribution, Malaria Control, Mortality, Kampala, Multiple Linear Regression, Public Health