Analysis of Patients Inflow Due to Malaria: Case of Kasangati Health Centre IV 2010-2014

Abstract

The study examines malaria cases among males and females at kasangati health centre iv. The main objectives of the study were achieved by fitting the trend and running an ARIMA model. The study also predicted the malaria rate for the period of six months of 2015. All the analysis was done using STATA software. Econometrics techniques such as autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), augmented dickey Fuller test (ADF), assessment of the invertiblity condition for the models and white noise test on estimated residuals was used to examine the time series analysis of malaria rate. The results show that both the male and female malaria rates were stationary. The distribution of malaria rates among the males and females show an increase and a decrease at different points in different years. Also the forecast gave the same results for next six months of 2015 which indicates that malaria is still a burden. In conclusion the hypothesis was found to be false that the malaria rates for both males and females were not stationary and a number of recommendations were issued to help reduce the high malaria rate.