The influence of El-Nino Southern oscillation on the seasonal rainfall over central Uganda

Abstract

Majority of communities in Uganda rely on rainfed agriculture which is highly vulnerable to the distribution and amounts of rainfall. A clear understanding of teleconnective systems that influence rainfall is imperative. The aim of the study was to examine the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the seasonal rains of Central Uganda. Specifically, the study set out to determine the temporal rainfall trends over Central Uganda and investigate the relationship between ENSO and seasonal rainfall over Central Uganda. The study found out that the September-November seasonal rainfall indicated an increasing trend over the 1987-2017 30-year period across all the stations expect for Mbarara and Mubende. Also, all the stations exhibited an interannual variability in the September-November seasonal rainfall, indicative of remote influences such ENSO. The relationship between the ENSO indices and September-November seasonal rainfall was established using a simple correlation analysis showed a positively correlated influence with all ENSO indices except for Mbarara and Mubende stations.