Analysis of the performance of the coffee industry in Uganda for the period (2008-2018): a case study of Uganda Coffee Development Authority

Abstract

The study investigated the economic performance of the Coffee Industry in Uganda from a statistical perspective. The objectives of this study were to: analyze the quantity of coffee exports and volume of coffee production in Uganda, examine the level of employment in the coffee industry and also to analyze the relationship between quantity of coffee exports, volume of production and level of employment in the coffee industry. A case study of the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), which was established as a public Authority with a mandate to promote and oversee the coffee industry by supporting research, promoting production, controlling the quality and improving the marketing of coffee. This study was carried out for the period 2008 up to 2018. The study employed Secondary sources of data since the study variables (quantity of coffee exports, volume of coffee and employments levels) were already recorded in numerical values as required by the research design.

It was hypothesized that there was no trend in the Employment Level and volume of coffee production and that there was no seasonality in the quantity of coffee exports Empirically, results of the time series analysis indicated that was seasonality in the quantity of coffee exports and that there was a trend in volume of coffee produced and in the level of employment in the coffee industry. Forecasts were also done for the next five years to predict the volume of coffee to be produced and the level of employment. Using linear regression, there was a significant positive relationship between the quantity of coffee exports with the volume of coffee produced and level of employment in the coffee exports The study recommends that the government of Uganda should also encourage coffee production in new areas and expand acreage in traditional coffee areas. Improve the use of agriculture inputs in coffee production and processing of coffee beans and to put a standard on the coffee produced at farm level in order to increase the value of coffee exports on the international market and also come up with policies that support firms to have more access to credit service such as soft loans, and also promote saving and investment habit. This will lead to more investment and increase production further. The government should ensure sustainable access to markets for youth-led enterprises and the right skills for young individuals, while providing an enabling environment that fosters access to land and finance. This will help youth fulfil the employment potential in Uganda’s coffee sector.