Analyzing the impact of urban refugees’ settlements on the housing rental prices in Kampala. Study area: Kansanga along Ggaba road

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of urban refugee settlements on housing rental prices in Kansanga, a high-density neighborhood in Kampala, Uganda. As Uganda maintains one of the most progressive refugee policies globally, it has experienced a significant influx of refugees, many of whom relocate from rural settlements to urban centers in search of better socio- economic opportunities. This migration trend has placed considerable pressure on Kampala's already strained housing market, prompting concerns over rising rental costs, housing affordability, and local displacement. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data from structured questionnaires with qualitative insights gathered through interviews and focus group discussions. A sample of 130 respondents including landlords, local tenants, and refugee tenants was selected using stratified sampling techniques to ensure demographic representation. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS for descriptive statistics and NVivo for thematic coding. Findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between the increasing concentration of refugees in the area and the rise in housing rental prices. Refugees, often perceived by landlords as more financially reliable due to their willingness to pay higher rent in advance, were found to dominate mid-to-high-income rental segments. This dynamic has contributed to the marginalization of low-income local tenants and heightened competition for affordable housing. The study further identifies challenges in policy enforcement, socio-economic integration, and tenant rights awareness. The research concludes that urban refugee settlements are a key driver of rental price inflation in Kansanga and calls for comprehensive policy responses. Recommendations include decentralizing refugee economic integration to secondary cities, enhancing enforcement of the Landlord and Tenant Act, expanding affordable housing, and promoting community-based integration initiatives. The study contributes to the limited body of knowledge on the intersection between refugee urbanization and housing markets in sub-Saharan African contexts.