Evaluation of the contribution of different agriculture sub sectors to total GDP in Uganda

Abstract

The main aim of this study is to carry out a time series analysis for the contribution of the different Agriculture sub sectors to GDP for Uganda for the period 2010/11-2017/18 with the aid of Uganda’s Quarterly GDP at current prices. Specifically, to study the trend of the performance of Uganda’s agricultural sector as related to the Quarterly GDP at current prices;analyzed the effect of the cash and food crops, Livestock and Fisheries, the Forestry sub sector, to the share to the agricultural sector and lastly to clearly portray if there is a significant relationship between sub sectors and their impact on the Uganda’s Quarterly GDP at current prices 2010/11-2017/18. The study findings showed that all regressors came out significant, however, it was observed that if the agricultural sector share declines by one UGX, on the average, total GDP goes up by UGX .5073354. Also a unit increase in the cash crops such as coffee raises total GDP by about UGX 1.788467 provided there is a one-shilling increase in food crops, by over UGX 4.5 provided there is a one-shilling increase in livestock production if not hampered by climate change, by UGX 3.39 given a one-shilling raise in forestry and tourism income and finally the total GDP is expected to grow by over UGX 30 provided there are continuous returns from fishing. Despite the fact that the agricultural sector had a commendable impact on the country’s GDP, the quality of most of the agricultural products do not meet the required standards for the exports sector. This study therefore suggests that given the relevancy of livestock, forestry and fisheries, NAADs program managers in phase II should focus more support on institutional capacity-building activities so as to reach out, recruit and develop the capacity of more farmers to form and manage their production.