Fish exports and economic growth in Uganda 1993 to 2021

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of fish exports on economic growth in Uganda. All variables were stationary after first differencing, confirming they were of integration order of I(1). The Johansen co-integration test established a long-run relationship among the variables, leading to the estimation of a conventional Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to capture both short-run and long-run effects. A Granger causality test was also performed to determine the direction of causality. The results showed that fish exports had an insignificant short- run effect on economic growth but a significant positive impact in the long run. The Granger causality test indicated no causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. Additionally, Total Exports was found to have a significant positive impact in the long run and short run with a unidirectional causality running from Total exports to Real Gross Domestic Product. However, inflation rate was found not to have any impact both in the long run and short run. The Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of -0.16404 suggests that any deviation from the long-run equilibrium is corrected at a rate of 16.404%.