The influence of temperature and humidity on the escalation of influenza virus in young children in Kampala

Abstract

The climate patterns over Uganda particularly Kampala district shows a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. The study main objective was to assess the variation of influenza virus spread in young children under different weather conditions that is to say temperature and humidity. Increasing trends for period (2010-2020) were observed in annual relative humidity although decreasing trends were observed in both maximum and minimum temperatures, however variations were observed in the temperature and humidity trend. Influenza virus spread in young children for Kampala district indicated positive increases with (gradient=47) and (R2=0.9845) over the period. However the trend of influenza virus spread was constant. the humidity and temperature were examined in relation to influenza virus escalation in which the trends in both, Mann-Kendal trend analysis and coefficient of variation were used. Linear regression model was used to generate the threshold causing influenza virus spread in young children in Kampala district. Mann Kendall results depict the same scenarios as trend and time series analysis, however, statistically insignificant trends where observed in both maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity. Though increasing trends were observed in influenza virus spread over Kampala district. Furthermore regression results showed positive linear relationship between annual relative humidity and influenza virus spread due to the correlation coefficient that indicated that the percentage of the variance of influenza virus and relative humidity explain collectively. In addition, minimum temperatures depicted high positive relationship with influenza virus spread and this relationship is statistically significant whereas a positive weak linear relationship between maximum temperatures and influenza virus infections which is statistically insignificant.