Examining the effect short-lived pollutants on rainfall variability and extremes in Uganda

Abstract

The climate of Uganda had for decades proved of its natural variability; featured with floods, and droughts; and their resulting negative impacts on the socio-economic welfare of the country. The study used secondary data on monthly basis for the period 1991 to 2019. Monthly rainfall data used in the study was retrieved from Climate Knowledge Management Portal of World Bank. Data on hydrofluorocarbons and other short-lived pollutants. Empirical analysis of secondary data was aided by the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The results show that an increase in the concentration of short-lived pollutant gas emissions in the atmosphere leads to more desertification (increased global warming). The p-value for the coefficient is 0.764 which exceeds the threshold of 0.05, an implication of insignificant impact on rainfall variability and extremes Based on the findings, the study recommends planting of more trees as a nationwide arrangement such that we can have more absorbers of hydrofluorocarbons and other forms of short-lived pollutants, also, the government should make it mandatory that every processing factory/firm of any kind should have heating chimneys to heat their wastes before dumping them into the environment, and then; the government should intervene and provide a straight hand in the pricing of hydroelectricity power, to make it cheaper such that reduce on the reliance of carbonic materials like charcoal, and yet at the same time charcoal is got through deforestation. Therefore, reduced electricity would serve a duo health role; reducing carbon from charcoal use at home, and secondly, reducing deforestation which would reduce evapotranspiration.