Utilization of indigenous knowledge through insects for predicting planting seasons in Kibaale District, Uganda

Abstract

This study examined the application of indigenous knowledge systems, particularly insect behaviour, in forecasting planting seasons among smallholder farmers in Kibaale District, western Uganda. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrated surveys, interviews, and field observations, data were collected from 156 farmers. This study explored the use of insect species for seasonal forecasting by farmers in Kibaale District. It was found that Dorylus spp. (safari ants) (78.3%), Danaus chrysippus (butterflies) (71.7%), and Cactoblastis cactorum larvae (red hairy caterpillars) (63.3%) were the most commonly observed insects used by over 60% of farmers to predict seasonal changes. Insect behaviors such as emergence and flight activity were linked to the onset of dry and rainy seasons, providing important cues for agricultural activities. It was also found that 71.7% of farmers relied on indigenous weather forecasting methods due to their accuracy and cultural relevance, while 63.3% used scientific forecasts despite only 18.6% considering them accurate. Logistic regression results showed that farming experience and marital status significantly increased the likelihood of adopting scientific forecasting methods. However, farmers reported a decline in the reliability of these indicators due to climate variability and environmental degradation. The study concludes that indigenous knowledge remains a valuable resource in seasonal forecasting and recommends its integration with scientific methods to enhance climate resilience and support local agricultural decision-making.