Time series analysis of the gross value added by agriculture in Uganda from 1992 to 2022

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the trend and forecast of the gross value added by the agricultural sector in Uganda over the period from 1992 to 2022. The value added by agriculture measures the economic contribution of the agricultural sector through its production activities. It is a key indicator of the sector’s impact on the economy. Despite agriculture being the primary livelihood source for a significant portion of Uganda’s population, the value added by agriculture lags behind that of other countries in the region, indicating lower productivity and untapped potential. Despite the government’s efforts to promote agriculture through various policies and initiatives, the sector’s performance remains sub-optimal suggesting underlying challenges that impede its contribution to the economy. The Box-Jenkins approach will be employed to develop an appropriate Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for analysing the gross value added by agriculture. The annual Gross Value Added by agriculture is obtained from the World Bank Database.