Determinants of household welfare and poverty in Uganda: evidence from the 2019/2020 Uganda National Panel Survey

Abstract

This study examined the determinants of household welfare and poverty in Uganda using secondary household-level data from the 2019/20 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). The main objective was to examine how household demographic composition, household head characteristics, and employment and locational factors relate to household welfare, measured as per capita consumption expenditure and poverty status. Using a final analytic sample of 3,062 households, the study applied descriptive statistics, bivariate chi-square tests, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression of log per capita welfare, and a probit regression of poverty status with average marginal effects. Household size and the dependency ratio were negatively associated with welfare; the household head’s education was the strongest and most consistent determinant of welfare across all stages of analysis; and location, particularly residence in the Northern region, carried the largest welfare penalty and poverty risk of any variable examined. Notably, the sex of the household head was not a significant predictor of poverty status, contrary to the common assumption that female-headed households are inherently more vulnerable, a finding consistent with earlier Ugandan evidence.The study concludes that household demographic composition, the household head’s education, and geography remain central, structural determinants of welfare and poverty in Uganda.It recommends continued investment in education and family planning services, sustained prioritisation of lagging regions such as the North, and caution against using the sex of the household head as a standalone targeting criterion in social protection programmes.