Time series analysis of coffee exports in Uganda

Abstract

The high volatility of the coffee export volume posts a significant risk to producers, traders, consumers, and others involved in the production of coffee. Thus, it is crucial for decision makers to statistically and accurately project the exports of coffee. This research uses univariate models to forecast the coffee exports using data from 1965 to September 2021. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) will be employed in the analysis for forecasting. The study also generates an out-of-sample forecast to analyse and compare the statistical results from all the models in order to determine the accuracy of which methods are more accurate in terms of statistical criteria and visual proximity with the actual coffee exports. The results show that there will be an increase in the coffee exports.