The impact of climate change on coffee production in Uganda

Abstract

The study focused on determining how climate change patterns in temperature, rainfall and humidity variations in Uganda have affected coffee production for the past eleven years from 2010 to 2020 using secondary time series data from the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) and Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). The study employed a quantitative cross-sectional study design at both univariate, bivariate and multivariate level with 95% level of confidence using Stata as the analysis tool. The study results showed a positive statistically significant effect (t=3.806 with p-value=0.011) between temperature variations and coffee production and showed a negative relationship over the years. There was also a positive statistically significant effect of average annual rainfall variations and coffee production ascertained by a p-value at 5% level of significance (t=1.000 and pvalue=0.027) at multivariate level. Humidity variations over the years had no significant effect on coffee production. The study was able to provide insights into the impacts of climate change on coffee production in Uganda and the adaptation strategies used by coffee farmers. It also identified the policies implemented by the government to mitigate the impacts of climate change on coffee production which include but not limited to; use of improved coffee varieties that are drought resistant to increase the amount and quality of coffee produced, there should be irrigation facilities in place to ensure coffee production flourishes all year round, reducing the rate deforestation and swamp reclamation to raise rainfall levels and reduce the threats of drought and last but not least, sensitization of coffee farmers on better farming methods by the authority bodies such as UCDA.