A time series analysis of the contributions of agriculture, industry and service sectors to Uganda’s GDP (2008-2024)

Abstract

This study examined the contributions of Uganda’s agriculture, industry, and services sectors to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the period 2008–2024. Secondary data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and analyzed using a quantitative time-series approach. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize sectoral performance, while linear regression trend analysis was employed to assess changes in sectoral GDP contributions over time. Differences in mean growth rates across sectors were examined using One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Tukey HSD post hoc tests. In addition, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed and validated to forecast sectoral GDP contributions from 2024 to 2027. The results revealed statistically significant growth trends in all three sectors over the study period. The services sector recorded the strongest growth trend and remained the largest contributor to GDP, followed by industry and agriculture. Analysis of mean growth rates showed significant differences across sectors, with industry (1.294%) and services (1.227%) exhibiting significantly higher growth rates than agriculture (0.878%), while no significant difference was observed between industry and services. Forecast results indicated continued growth in all sectors through 2027, with services expected to maintain dominance, industry showing steady expansion, and agriculture recording the highest projected percentage increase despite remaining the smallest contributor. The study concludes that Uganda is undergoing a service-led structural transformation characterized by sustained growth in all major sectors, although substantial disparities in sectoral performance persist. While economic growth is expected to continue, the imbalance between sectors suggests that structural transformation remains incomplete. The study recommends strengthening agricultural productivity through investment in climate-resilient farming systems, promoting manufacturing-led industrialization, and enhancing digital transformation to ensure that growth in the services sector translates into broader employment and sustainable economic development.