Assessing the impact of land use and land cover changes on carbon stocks using remote sensing in Mayuge District

Abstract

This study shows the dynamic relationship between land use and land cover changes and above-ground carbon stock changes in Mayuge District over a 28-year period from 1995 to 2023. Driven by rapid population growth, agricultural intensification, and urban expansion, the district has undergone significant landscape transformations with profound ecological consequences. Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery, remote sensing techniques were applied to map LULCC patterns through supervised classification. The classification outputs were validated using reference data, while carbon stocks were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Tier 1 methodology, based on default biomass values for different land cover classes. The results indicate a significant decrease in natural vegetation cover, with forested areas declining by approximately 77%, accompanied by a 355.5% increase in croplands and a 722.9% rise in urban land between 1995 and 2023. Forests, which initially sequestered an estimated 8.38 million tonnes of carbon in 1995, experienced a steep decline to 1.84 million tonnes by 2023. Similarly, wetlands and shrublands registered significant losses in both spatial extent and carbon storage capacity. In contrast, croplands contributed slightly to carbon gains, primarily due to their expansion and possible integration of high biomass crops, although their sequestration potential remained substantially lower than that of natural forests. The study also shows a strong negative correlation between the loss of native vegetation and the district’s carbon sequestration capacity, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable land use strategies. These findings emphasize the ecological costs of unchecked land conversion and highlight the critical importance of including carbon conservation into regional planning. To protect the environment and reduce carbon emissions, certain areas should be carefully chosen for tree planting. Farmers can also practice agroforestry techniques to improve soil and store more carbon. Wetlands on the other hand should be preserved because they help absorb carbon and support biodiversity. In conclusion therefore, this study shows how land cover changes significantly impact carbon stocks in tropical landscapes thus offering practical insights for integrating carbon conservation into land use planning which can be adapted in other parts of the country.