Agricultural exports and employment in Uganda: an empirical assessment of growth engine or jobless growth (2014-2024): a case study of Uganda

Abstract

This study examined the effect of agricultural exports on employment in Uganda’s agricultural sector from 2014 to 2024. Agriculture is one of the main sources of employment and export earnings in Uganda. However, there are concerns about whether the growth in agricultural exports has actually led to more employment opportunities in the sector. The study used annual secondary data obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and the Bank of Uganda. The data was analysed using Stata. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and correlation analysis were first used to understand the behaviour of the variables over the study period. The study then used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model to examine the relationship between agricultural exports and employment. The ARDL model was also used to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between agricultural exports, employment, and other macroeconomic variables. The OLS results showed that agricultural exports had a positive relationship with employment, although the effect was not statistically significant. GDP had a significant negative effect on agricultural employment, while inflation had a negative but insignificant effect. The exchange rate had a positive but weak effect on employment. The ARDL results showed that agricultural exports had a positive but weakly significant effect on employment in the short run. This suggests that an increase in exports may temporarily support employment through increased production and labour demand. However, the study did not find a significant long-run relationship between agricultural exports and employment. The study concludes that although agricultural exports can contribute positively to employment, increasing exports alone may not be enough to create many sustainable jobs in Uganda’s agricultural sector. The study therefore recommends that export promotion should be supported by investments in value addition, agro-processing, rural infrastructure, and other labour-intensive agricultural activities to create more employment opportunities and support inclusive economic growth.