A micro-foundational analysis of skilled emigration, institutional determinants, and sectoral productivity in Uganda

Abstract

The international migration of skilled labor, or "brain drain," represents a significant developmental challenge for Uganda, where heavy investments in education often fail to yield expected domestic economic returns. This study provides a micro-foundational analysis of the determinants of skilled emigration and its perceived impact on sectoral productivity and economic growth in Uganda. Guided by human capital and endogenous growth theories, the research sought to identify key economic, institutional, and professional drivers of migration and assess whether their effects are perceived as negative, compensatory, or mixed. A quantitative research design was employed, utilizing a cross-sectional survey administered to a sample of 261 Ugandan nationals at the pre-departure stage for overseas employment. Primary data were collected through structured questionnaires on digital platforms and analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics in Stata. Findings reveal that while large wage differentials remain a primary driver, institutional factors— including governance quality and perceived domestic labor market failures—significantly influence migration intentions, particularly among the youth (under 25). Despite the "chronic shortages" of personnel in critical sectors like healthcare and STEM, respondents generally held a "nuanced perspective" on the economic impact of their departure. Median negative impact scores were relatively low (1.5 to 1.7 on a 5-point scale), suggesting a strong belief in the "beneficial brain drain" hypothesis where remittances and diaspora networks mitigate the direct loss of human capital. The study concludes that skilled emigration in Uganda is driven by a domestic environment that fails to effectively absorb and reward merit-based skills. It recommends that the Ugandan government prioritize institutional reforms, merit-based recruitment, and sector-specific retention packages—especially for healthcare and STEM professionals—while developing frameworks to harness the potential of the diaspora for national development.