Regional differentials in the determinants of education attainment in Karamoja and Kampala, Uganda: evidence from the 2024 National Population and Housing Census

Abstract

Educational attainment is an important indicator of human capital development and socio economic transformation. However, disparities in educational attainment remain evident across regions in Uganda, particularly between Kampala and Karamoja. Kampala is more urbanized and has better access to educational and socio-economic opportunities, while Karamoja continues to face development challenges that may limit educational progression. This study examined regional differentials in the determinants of educational attainment among individuals aged 25 years and above in Kampala and Karamoja regions of Uganda, using data from the 2024 National Population and Housing Census. A cross-sectional analytical research design was adopted. The study population comprised 131,378 respondents aged 25 years and above, of whom 80,692 (61.4%) were from Kampala and 50,686 (38.6%) were from Karamoja. Secondary data were analyzed using univariate, bivariate, and multivariate techniques. Frequencies and percentages were used to summarize respondents’ characteristics, chi-square tests were used to examine associations between educational attainment and selected explanatory variables, and ordered logistic regression was used separately for Kampala and Karamoja to identify independent predictors of educational attainment. The findings revealed substantial regional disparities in educational attainment between Kampala and Karamoja. In Karamoja, 77.5% of respondents had no formal education compared to 11.3% in Kampala. In contrast, Kampala had higher proportions of respondents with secondary education (40.7%), post-secondary education (25.3%), and university education (4.8%) compared to Karamoja, where only 7.7%, 3.7%, and 0.4% had attained these levels, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, sex, age group, marital status, internet access, savings group membership, household composition, sex of household head, and education level of household head were significant predictors of educational attainment in both regions after controlling for other factors. The study concludes that educational attainment in Kampala and Karamoja is influenced by a combination of demographic, socio-economic, and household factors. Regional disparities remain substantial, with Karamoja experiencing lower levels of educational attainment than Kampala. The study recommends targeted educational interventions in Karamoja, expansion of digital access, strengthening of household economic support, promotion of adult literacy, and support for disadvantaged households in order to reduce regional inequalities in educational attainment.