Time Series Analysis of Water Tariffs and Water Consumption: A Case Study of National Water and Sewerage Corporation, Kireka Branch-Kampala-Uganda

Abstract

Based on the data collected from Kireka branch of National Water and Sewerage Corporation, The production and distribution of piped water in Kampala district is still a challenge. This study sought to identify the best fit time series model to the water tariffs and water consumption data and therefore investigate whether water tariffs have a significant effect on water consumption. It was recorded that the average water consumed was 162412.3m3 liters) while the cost of each unit of water was approximately UGX 2850.014. . Several analyses were conducted and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA (1, 1, 0). The results in the ARIMA model revealed that water tariffs significantly predict water consumption and that the previous water consumption values do not influence future water consumption. The continuous increase in water consumption was mainly due to the rampant urbanization and the increasing population. It was recommended that NWSC should redesign water tariffs in order to improve access for lower income households and prioritise areas and communities with high population and essential service providers such as hospitals and schools in the district in times of low water production