The impact of temperature and rainfall variability on coffee production: a case study of Zombo District, North Western part of Uganda

Abstract

Worldwide, climate change and variability have been raising concerns about potential changes to crop yields and production systems. The study focuses on the impacts of climate variability on coffee production in Zombo district, North western part of Uganda. Specifically, this study is aimed at determining how temperature and rainfall affects coffee production. The study utilized secondary data for rainfall and temperature all obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority for a period of 30 years. Secondary data for coffee production was also obtained from the office of the District Agricultural Officer, Zombo district for the period from 2010-2020. Temperature and rainfall series were analyzed for fluctuation using time series and trend analysis on temperature and rainfall was performed using the Mann-Kendell test. Correlation analysis was used to establish the relationship between temperature and rainfall with coffee production. The study found out that in the area of study (p-value > alpha 0.05) had insignificant trends in annual maximum temperature. It was also found that the area (p-value < alpha 0.05) had significant trends in rainfall. According to the results of the study, it was established that there was a positive relationship between coffee production and temperature and rainfall during the study period but was insignificant because (p > 0.05), this therefore led to the partial rejection of the null hypothesis and that there was a relationship between rainfall and temperature variations with coffee production in Zombo. Trends of coffee production over the period 2010-2020 showed that coffee production increased linearly.